caught up on everything we've done so far this year. so youon't feel left behind. this is like "24" if you miss an episode you miss a lot. don't miss tomorrow's show. set your dvr. from new york, good night, from new york, good night, america. captioned by closed captioning services, inc >> jim: hurricane earl barrels toward north carolina. non-partisan analysis predicts republicans will take control of the house in the fall elections. and james rosen has a fox exclusive with defense secretary gates who is visiting iraq and afghanistan. live from our studio in washington, this is "special report." good evening. i'm jim angle in for bret baier. hurricane earl has weakened to a category three storm but is still packing fierce winds as it spins toward north carolina's coast. correspondent jonathan serrie is live in kill devil hills, north carolina, with an update. good evening, jonathan. >> reporter: good evening, jim. as you can see behind me there are a few stragglers on the beach. in the hour we've been standing out here, we noticed the winds pick up.

also the seas are picking up. just before you came to the live shot, a huge wave pushed water all the way up to our feet here. with conditions like this, local officials say the time for preparation is over. and it's now time for action. >> thursday morning, tourists on north carolina's outer banks awoke to mandatory evacuations. their county ordered all non-residents to head for the mainland. >> our friends knocked on the door and said you better get up, i think we need to get moving. we have already started to pack up a little bit last night. so we're just headed out. ending our vacation early. >> reporter: with their labor day plans disrupted, some vacationers took advantage of the last opportunity for beach time before making their exit. >> i feel safer leaving. especially for my kids. if it was just me, i'd probably ride it out. >> reporter: many permanent residents intend to ride out the storm. they spent the day securing their property, stocking up on supplies and preparing for flooding, power outages and fallen trees. >> i have my chain saw

sharpened, generator out. i'm pretty prepared to a point. but you're never prepared enough. >> we have in play the resources and the supplies and the capacity to do whatever it takes for north carolina and our citizens to be safe. >> reporter: the strong category three storm is threatening communities all along the eastern seaboard. we call this the cone of uncertainty for a reason. the best case scenario we have a path, a trough moving in and quicks the storm out to sea quicker. the worst case scenario is it makes a wobble to the west and affects a hugep notlation. >> reporter: with watches posted from florida to as north as canada, communities are getting ready. they're building sand birms to protect whatever mother nature has to uffer and closing seawall in coastal city, maryland, where the mayors are urging labor day weekend vacationers to delay,

not cancel the travel plans. >> we expect a quarter of million people coming to the city. what we advise is they wait until the event passes. >> reporter: in the meantime, you can see the rough seas behind me. for that reason, as a precaution, the u.s. coast guard is closing state commercial ports in moorhead city and also in wilmington and ordering vessels to stay in their mooring as a precaution until the hurricane moves out of the waters. >> jim: thank you, and be safe. another offshore oil rig exploded. west of the site where b.p. oil rig did in april. 13 crew members were rescued but one was injured. the rest are said to be tired and hungry. >> it's certainly too early to know what sparked the fire. the coast guard plans to do interview with those rescued to determine the cause of the fire. >> the coast guard is backing off the earlier assessment a

mile-long oil sheen was seen coming from the rig. however, officials say the raging fire has since been extinguished. diplomats tried before but gotten nowhere. senior white house correspondent major garrett looks at the middle east peace prospect and process for success. >> reporter: in the last 24 hours, president obama thrown the ornamental and diplomatic weight of the office behind middle east peace talks, talks some see as doomed to fail. >> they have been occurring for 20 years without making progress. it's hard to see why this time they will make great breakthroughs. >> reporter: after a day of direct talk, hint of progress. they will meet again september 15 in sharm el-sheikh, egypt. hillary clinton and envoy george miller will attend to see if the settlements in jerusalem will derail talks. the palestinians want it

extended and israel refuses. if both sides look for an exit ramp this could be it. for now, the talks are dressed in the rhetoric of the willing. >> we have to get from disagreement to agreement. a big task. >> translator: what is giving us confidence is that the road is clear in front of us in order to reach peace. >> abbas and netanyahu met first with the delegation and u.s. officials and then privately with mitchell and lin and then by themselveses with no note-takers. they steered clear of substance expect to say there was some. >> for these negotiations to succeed, they must be kept private. and treated with the utmost sensitivity. >> mr. obama met privately yesterday at the white house with netanyahu and abbas. all sides pledged to resolve all the tough issues, borders, refugee, jerusalem, water right, security and others by next year. but first, the two sides said today they needed a so-called framework agreement.

>> less than a full-fledged treaty. its purpose is to establish the fundamental compromises necessary to enable the parties to then flesh out and complete a comprehensive agreement. that will end the conflict and establish peace. >> if it sounds like diplomatic double speak, it is. no one at the state department knows how much work it will take to get to the framework agreement or how much work remains after that to achieve a final solution. to underscore the seriousness the state department is putting behind the effort, tomorrow, the secretary of state hillary clinton will sit down for what can only be described as an unusual interview. simultaneously on the peace process with israeli and palestinian journalists. jim? >> jim: major, thank you. that should be interesting. tonight, in america's news headquarters, exhaustive non-partisan analyst by

political analyst larry sabetaux say republicans are likely to see huge gains in november including a takeover of the house. >> there is absolutely no doubt at this point, it's a republican year. >> unforeseen events can change things but he predicts a net gain of 47 seats for republicans in the house. eight to nine in the seat, putting them one seat short of taking over both houses of congress. many democrats say it's just an anti-incumbent year but he believes it's more than that. >> this election year is mischaracterized as anti-incumbent year but it's becoming increasingly obvious it's anti-democratic year. >> jim: the clearest example of the sentiment are the tea party candidates but they often differ from the current republican lawmakers. democrats hope it will complicate the republicanerts to win the crucial vote of

independents. >> we have a lot of division within the republican party. and we're seeing strong efforts by more ideological candidates who may have more trouble to pick up the swing voters in the fall. >> the u.s. congress isn't the only problem they face. he predicts gains at the state level as well with republicans pick up eight governorships and 300 to 500 seats in state legislatures. that could have an impact for years to come, because 2011 is a redistricting year. >> the more republican governors the more republican state legislators you have, the more republican the new districts are going to be. >> that could have an impact on election results for next ten years. one of the reasons for this and other prediction of republican gain is the sad state of the economy. president obama tries to blame president bush as much as he can. two years into his presidency, that's wearing thin. but republican gains in could give him a fresh target. >> right now, obama and the democrats are in charge of

everything. they have nobody to blame. there is suddenly a whipping boy for democrats. >> that is exactly what happened with bill clinton after republicans won back both houses of congress in 1994. >> many people would argue in hindsight that the best thing that happened to bill clinton in his first term in office was losing the house. >> that helped him get re-elected in spite of the problems. a lot could happen before election day that could change the numbers but if the republicans do as well as it now appears they would essentially erase the gains democrats made in 2006 and 2008. that bring us to our featured text to vote poll. here is tonight's question. how many seats do you think republicans will pick up? you can text your answer to 36288. text sr1 for 20-29 seats. sr2 for 30-39 seats.

sr3 for 40-49. sr4 for over 50. we'll bring you the results at the end of the show. but first, former british prime minister tony blair opens up. ♪

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>> jim: in international news, china is calling for a compromise to restart six-party talks aimed at disarming north korea's nuclear program. chinese state media reports that kim jong il told chinese president he wanted to resume talks but u.s. and japan say conditions are not right because of increased tension in the re japan over the sinking of a -- region over the sinking of a south korean warship. china has invested a lot of

money in iran, which has led officials to worry that chinese companies will broker new deals in the middle eastern country to fill the void created by sanctions. china calls the business with iran, "normal." defense secretary robert gates arrived in afghanistan. correspondent james rosen is traveling with gates and has an exclusive interview. >> reporter: making his ninth visit to afghanistan since taking office, secretary gates faced fresh reports of u.s. casualties here. three in the young month of september, at least 22 in the last week. with 2010 already out pacing the grim record for casualties set last year. president karzai pressed new claims about allied airstrikes killing afghan civilians. nato said thursday raid in the north targeted an killed 12 insurgents including a taliban commander. gates said the high value target now dead was a senior official in the movement in uzbekistan. >> this is an individual who

was responsible for organizing and organize straiting a number -- orchestrating a number of attacks here in kabul and in northern afghanistan. >> but karzai painted a starkly different picture of the strike. >> candidate for parliament named horasani and his convoy suffered casualties. >> as their first success in the post obama surge period, allied commanders pointed to february's fierce battle for marjah. david petraeus the top allied commander expressed concern about resurgencesy in marjha. >> no question taliban is fighting back. >> reporter: in an interview on wednesday, secretary gates begrudgingly confirmed assessment by petraeus and general james conway that the fight in southern afghanistan will likely keep u.s. forces in theater for years to come. >> my gut tells me that we will probably have a troop

presence in afghanistan for some period of time. i would say certainly more than two years. >> gates also made clear his displeasure with conway's recent assertion that the administration plan to begin to withdrawal troops next july is probably giving sustenance to the enemy. >> he's entitled to his professional military opinion. i don't think you have heard other chiefs or generals say that. >> one remedy for shortening the war and bring troops home faster is if the karzai government could agree on another plan. talks are going on at a high level and holding promise. travelling with the secretary of defense in afghanistan, james rosen, fox news. >> jim: hailed as one of the giant of modern british politics, tony prime minister tony blair may have opened old sores trying to defend his record. correspondent greg palkot has the story. >> reporter: former u.k. prime minister tony blair's

memoir "a journey" went on sale today. in england, getting mixed reviews. >> would you think of buying the book? >> i think so. >> no. >> no wonder his championing of the iraq war very unpopular here made him unpopular leader. his pledge donated $7 million in royalties to veteran charity is not swaying opinion. in the book he says he has no doubts about the war. >> when i'm asked whether i regret the decision, i have to say i take responsibility for it. but i can't regret the decision. >> reporter: his closeness first with former president clinton and especially president bush earned him the label by critics the "poodle of the u.s." blair hits back at them. "those who thought our closeless to america was a problem and the rest of the world," he writes "could not have been further from the mark." he offers a spirited defense of bush himself saying caricatures of bush as a dumb idiot were ludicrous. george had immense simplicity in how he saw the world, but right or wrong it led to

decisive leadership. >> you might have expected tony blair to pull some of the punches because george bush is not a popular politician here but that's not what he thinks so that's not what he said. >> blair was less kind to local figures and even himself. he said labor party rifle and former u.k. prime minister gordon brown had zero emotional intelligence. and comparing himself to the late princess diana, blair writes, "we were both in our ways manipulative people. perceiving quickly the emotions of others." >> blair at the white house last night in his role as mideast envoy launched a high profile media campaign in the states hoping for more success and book sales. no doubt watching closely, former president george w. bush whose own memoirs come out in november. in london, greg palkot, fox news. >> jim: second amendment groups are fired up about an obama administration flip-flop. that's ahead on the grapevine. plus in the old days, highwayman used to say, "your money or your life."

now a new federal program is supposed to protect both straight ahead. @=h

>> jim: mortgage rates fell to the lowest level in decades for the tenth time in 11 weeks. this as orders to u.s. factories managed a slight gain in july. also the number of people requesting unemployment benefits declined for the second straight week. the stocks reponded to that news positively. the dow gained 50-2/3. the s&p 500 added nearly 10. nasdaq rose 23 and change. federal reserve chairman ben bernanke told the financial crisis inquiry commission today that regulators should be ready to shut down banks if they threaten to bring down the financial system. bernanke said that, "the too

big to fail problem must be solved." ♪ ♪ >> jim: and billions of your tax dollars are headed toward a program aimed at updating patient records. with the hope of saving your money and your life in the future. correspondent william la jeunesse tells us where all your money is going. >> i'm fine today. how are you? >> reporter: going to the doctor is going paperless. as new obama administration rules require hospitals and physician to convert million of patient files to digital records. >> i think part of where the government is going is to try to make the data flow more freely amongst hospitals and providers so the data goes with you. >> reporter: it applies to information beginning with the patient weight, blood pressure, prescription and the results are lower cost, improved care and better safety. >> it's so medicines i

prescribe don't contradict with the current medicines they were on. that's something i had to remember to do when i was doing it on paper. now the computer reminds me. >> reporter: to defray the cost, the feds hand out $19 billion in stimulus money. providers who meet the government imposed deadline get higher federal reimbursement for up to five years. those who don't make the switch by 2015 get docked by 3%. some worry smaller hospitals can't afford the penalty and left up front money to make the transition. so either patients or providers helped bridge the gap. >> it doesn't cost for the patient of putting it in or running it. but it does help defray a little cost and you don't get it back until a few years you have it in. >> how much does the $19 billion cost you? log on to the calculator on foxnews.com. type in your income. if you earn under $15,000 a year the digital conversion costs you under $1. if you earn up to $200,000 you pay $237.

top tax bracket, the program will cost you more than $2,000. under the reimbursement program, doctors can receive $100,000 from medicare and medicaid. hospitals are eligible for millions. most agree this is long overdue, critics wonder why the public has to pay for this, as a patient and taxpayer. supports say, however, that sometimes you have to spend money to save money. that's what this incentive does. in los angeles, william la jeunesse, fox news. >> jim: so far the majority of those voting in the taxpayer poll disagree with the program. 81% don't think it's worth their tax dollars. 13% do. 6% are unsure. don't forget about our text to vote poll. the question: how many seats do you think republicans will pick up in the mid-term elections? you can text your answer to 36288. text sr1 for 20-29 seats. sr2 for 30-39.

sr3 for 40-49. sr4 for over 50 seats. the results and an all-star panel discussion later in the show. the grapevine is next! host: could switching to geico really save you 15% or more on car insurance?

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are you one of them? remember when you had more energy for 18 holes with your buddies? [ glass shatters ] more passion for the one you love? more fun with your family and friends? it could be a treatable condition called low testosterone, or low t. c'mon, stop living in the shadows. you've got a life to live. [ male announcer ] so don't blame it on aging. talk to your doctor and go to isitlowt.com to find out more. >> jim: now some fresh pickings from the political grapevine. "time" magazine has an argue focussing on how obama became

mr. unpopular. the author writes a sense of disappointment bordering on betrayal has been growing across the country especially in moderate states like indiana. where people now openly say they didn't quite understand the president they voted for in 2008. the article notes the president's gallop approval rating has dropped from a high of 68% and now hovers in the mid-40s. meaning at least one in four americans has changed his or her mind. former democratic campaign donor fred furlic in indiana is one of them saying he plans to vote republican this year, because he thinks the president is, "trying to europeanize us, and the europeans are going the other way." some gun rights advocates are upset over reversal of the obama administration. last year it approved a plan by the south korean government to sell nearly a million antique m-1 rifles to gun collectors in the states. they were used by the u.s. soldiers in the korean war.

state department spokesman says the decision to ban the sale was based on concerns that the guns could fall in the wrong hands, but gun rights advocates say the m-1 rifles are already legal in the u.s. and note anyone buying a gun from south korea would still have to go through the standard background check. the rifle association chief lobbyist i chris cox called it a de facto gun ban courtesy of hillary clinton's state department. finally, the british broadcasting corporation director general says there was a massive left wing bias at the bbc. mark thompson tells the new statesman, "in the bbc i joined 30 years ago there was in much of current affairs in terms of people's personal politics which were quite vocal a massive bias to the left. the organization did struggle with the impartiality." thompson says now, however, that is no longer the case because a different generation of journalists works there. ♪ ♪

>> jim: our top story at the bottom of the hour. hurricane earl is ripping toward north carolina with 115-mile-per-hour winds. the east coast is on alert as far north as canada for what is shaping up as a blustery labor day weekend. fema says residents and tourists can't wait, can't afford rather to wait for the next forecast to see how close the eye of the category four storm night get. it brought light rain throughout the afternoon to barrier islands which are likely to get the full brunt of the storm around midnight. the first but likely not the last debate in a very close senate race went down in california last night. correspondent anita vogel has the highlights. >> reporter: wednesday's debate between incumbent democratic senator barbara boxer and her republican rival, former hewlett-packard ceo carly fiorina could have focussed on many topics, like the environment, and abortion. >> people of california have

to understand is that if my opponent's views prevailed, women and doctors would be criminals. >> her positions on these issues are extreme. she has said that she doesn't think a baby has rights until it leaves the hospital. >> but the two women kept veering back to the economy. boxer trying to paint fiorina as a greedy failed executive. fiorina accusing boxer of being an ultraliberal tax and spend career politician. >> she is for more taxes. she is for more spending. she is for more regulation. she is also for big government and elite extreme environmental groups. >> every time you really get past the surface, you see my opponent fighting for the billionaires, for the millionaires, approximate the companies who shift jobs overseas. >> at one point, boxer was asked to explain a highly publicized moment where she castigated a decorated

brigadier general. >> can you say "senator" instead of "ma'am." i worked hard to get the title. >> afterwards i called the general and i said do i owe you an apology? did i upset you? he said no. >> fiorina was pressed to take a stand on a strict state environmental law. but she wouldn't. >> yes or no? >> that is why -- >> do you support it? >> i have not take an position on it yet. >> while the night was mostly cordial, political experts say expect can more tough talk, especially on the economy. >> it will be primarily negative campaigning on the economy because that is the most straight forward strategy. >> experts add while boxer got more chuckles from the crowd fiorina proved to be a competent challenger. both campaigns are hinting they'll face off again before november. in san francisco, anita vogel, fox news. >> jim: in neighboring arizona the justice department sued maricopa

county joe arpaio saying he did not cooperate with the probe of alleged discrimination by his office. arpaio thinks the inquiry is focussed on his controversial immigration sweeps. we are learning more about the final moments of james lee, the gunman shot to death after he took hostages at discovery channel headquarters in silver springs, maryland, wednesday. his three hostages appeared ready to make a run for it, police say a swat team officer quickly shot and killed the increasingly agitated gunman. this morning, the company held a company wide meeting to review what happened and make sure everybody is okay. many pundits claim republicans will reclaim one or both chambers in congress in november but are the predictions premature? i discuss it with the fox all-stars after the break. [ lisa ] my nams lisa, and i smoked for 29 years.

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probably a big republican year. >> tea party candidates to me suggests that the republicans are not necessarily dominating the candidates who have the strongest chance against the democrats. >> jim: okay. more and more information coming in about the likely outcome of november's elections. of course, unforeseen events can always change things but right now let's look at larry sabato's prediction for the fall elections. he says that -- predicts, rather, a net gain of 47 seats for the republicans in the house. which would give them a majority. eight to nine in the senate, putting one seat short of taking over both house of congress. panel, stephen hayes from "weekly standard," juan williams from national public radio and syndicated columnist charles krauthammer. charles, what do you make of this? this is the second report we had this week to suggest big gains, significant gains for republican in congress.

>> that is from an analysis of seat-by-seat, state-by-state. i think the number that sort of explains it overall is what is called the generic ballot, where you ask someone if you vote republican or democr democratic in november? it's at the largest spread, 10-point republican lead in the 68 years of gallup will, which means it's, at a time when reagan was a democrat. this is a very long time. this is totally unprecedented. and that portends a wave election. that's like johnson in '64. like reagan in '80. gingrich in the mid-'90s. curiously, every 15 years or so. if that number holds, that generic spread of ten, then you get this kind of wave. i think you do get the house clearly will fall to the republicans. and the senate will be close. i think sabato is probably right. the republicans have to pull an inside straight to get control. they'll probably only have a

flush. i say they will end up minus one. >> jim: juan, what do you think of all of this? >> i think we have come to the end of the summer. labor day awaits us and we can now draw conclusions. first, everyone was saying going in the summer this was an anti-incumbent year. what we just heard from larry sabato he thinks it's turned out to be as the summer evolved, anti-democratic year. as i look forward, i think it's become anti-obama year. obama has become ro posetory of the ange -- repository of the anger and taxes and now republicans say it's a wave year for us. i think wait a second. it's just labor day. the campaign may yet turn. when you think about how could it turn to benefit democrats, two things stand out. one, democrats could make the case that the republicans don't have any great ideas for what they will do if they take over. except look back. and two, what susan estrich

said in the package, which was a number of the events of the summer have been about intramural feud among republicans that resulted in some candidates that could be painted by democrats as extremists. >> jim: steve, do you see anything that could help the democrats whittle down one prediction after another that the republicans are going to have huge gains in november? >> nothing. juan, that was a valiant effort. two good things that democrats -- [ laughter ] it just doesn't work. not all of us had been saying that this was largely an anti-incumbent mood before the summer. in fact, i think it's been clear for a long time it's been anti-democratic, anti-big government. for a long time. i think you can trace the roots of this back to the stimulus plan when the obama administration decided to pursue a stimulus plan largely a give-away to get democratic interest groups, not the kind of stimulus plan that many economists, middle of the road economists were

predicting. and did so without bringing republicans on board. so the republicans had some ownership of the economy. they didn't do this. this was the beginning of what we've seen in the progression of big government steps. now looking at november, we have an election about the size and scope of government. tough democrats defending a left-leaning president in a country that's center right country. >> jim: of course, since the president is not running if you are upset with obama as juan says, who do you take it out on? >> i'm not sure it's just obama. he is not on the ballot. it's about democrats. pelosi and reid are not very well-liked. the house, the senate are held in low regard any of the polls. the fact, the way it acted, it's not just that we have a bad economy, that obviously is a framework and context. it's not just that they spent all the money on the stimulus and it hasn't helped. it's the kind of arrogance and contempt shown by the democrats. look, when you have the election in massachusetts,

where a republican wins, a senate seat held by the kennedies, since 1952, it means something. it was ignored. after it happened, and democrats shoved the healthcare proposal down the throats of the congress, and the people even though it was unpopular, even the brown election of massachusetts largely hinged on that and was a message about it, the demonstration of we have an ideology, we won the election in 2008. we'll do it and we care. that i think is what stokes the anger of the electorate and the energy of republicans, so in the context of a bad economy and the anger and the energy, its looks like a we hav wave. >> jim: there is one other thing that's interesting. let's assume for a moment that you get big republican gains. he is talking about what the dynamic might be in that, because it would give president obama fresh target

to reflect criticism. listen to what he has to say. >> right now, obama and the democrats are in charge of everything. they have nobody to blame. if republicans are in charge of one or both houses of congress, suddenly there is a whipping boy for the democrats. >> of course, that's exactly what bill clinton did after he lost congress in 1994. it worked fairly well, steve. >> yeah, he did. there is one major difference. president obama largely passed his liberal agenda. president clinton didn't. his healthcare plan failed. so president obama has to defend this again and again and again. he has to answer for an economy that's continuing to teeter on a non-recovery. i think those two things combined, he may be able to maneuver to get to the point he can make that argument but it will be tough. >> he will make the case that the republicans have been the party of no. that's where i disagree with you. you say obama didn't reach out and do business with

republicans. republicans took a strategy of obstructing obama. now if they take control of the house, he will be absolutely to pin it on them. >> that is okay if the voters believe that obstructing the president as he tries to enact the agenda that many people disagree with is a good thing. i think the republicans now, or the voters now say yeah, it's fine if they want to abinstruct the government. >> clinton said the era of big government is over and obama said the era of big government returned. that's a big factor as well. up next, the panel discusses the chances for peace in the middle east. meantime, visit show note section of the home page at foxnews.com/specialreport for the latest on the peace talks and what the administration is hoping to achieve.

we are convinced that if you move forward in good faith, and do not waiver in your commitn't to succeed on behalf of your people, we are resolve all of the core issues within one year. >> jim: there is secretary of state hillary clinton talking about the mideast peace talks underway today here in washington. with the administration sort of being the midwife if you will. to try to get the palestinians and the israelis together. charles, why now? why is the administration making this effort at this time to tackle a problem that every president tries to attack at some point? but why is he picking this moment? >> i think for the president, it's important. he has wanted to from the beginning but he stumbled for the first year-and-a-half. i think the most important element here is you have an israeli leader who is said to be a right wing but leads a

national coalition left and right and center coalition who wants a final settlement. that is what is remarkable. and who can deliver. it's usually only a nixon in who ends up in china, a vegan that gives you a deal with egypt and who wants to? i'm encouraged by the fact that the administration structured the talks in the right way. this is not about interim, temporary agreements like oslo was. that was a disaster. it ends up with israeli concessions and the palestinians happened in a decade ago starting a war if the concessions weren't enough. this is about final status. and end of the conflict. said that mitchell said today it's about ending the conflict. no demands after that. which is what the israelis need and want. it's also not about a partial agreement, jerusalem here, settlements here, no. it's about everything in a framework. meaning, israelis will make

huge concession on territory in return for if the palestinian will give concessions on security. israel will give concessions on jerusalem, if the palestinians will give a concession on the idea of the right of return. that has to be what the negotiations are about. the large concessions, once you have the framework and it happened in the israeli egyptian negotiation, you had a framework. afterwards you work out out language of a treaty. if that is the objection, the idea is right. whether it will happen, i'm not sure. the palestinian leadership appears unwilling for a final settlement. and that i think in the end is the stumbling block. . >> jim: what do you think, juan? the administration is taking this in a deliberate fashion. getting them together. having them meet separately with the president, meet together. not pushing a lot in public but trying to get people to sit down and seemed reasonably cordial on the first day. >> a lot of that is p.r.

window dressing. we're accustomed to that. the big question in my mind is whether or not you have prime minister netanyahu actually determine that he is going to engage in settlement. does he have the will in his heart or is he putting on a good faith to maintain relationship with the united states, given that the administration has been very clear they expect israel to step up to the plate given the u.s. involvement in iraq, iran, afghanistan. the key for me so far has been to watch the idea that you just heard from secretary of state clinton that this is a one-year deal. that there is a time limit. there is a clear framework there. but that this goes beyond simple declaration of principles as what george mitchell, the special envoy said today. it goes beyond the principles to the idea that here is exactly what we're trying to accomplish, and that's why they detail the supposed framework.

we haven't seen the framework but they say the framework that lists what charles was talking about, settling tissue, getting violence off the table and putting everything in place. that's different here. mitchell said today when you look back at annapolis and the other recent efforts, the big problem has been time ran out. and in this case, because president obama has done it from the very beginning of his time in office, potentially, time is not going to be an issue. >> jim: even if you don't get a final agreement, steve, the time is right for president obama to come up with something positive to point to other than the economy and predictions about the elections. >> yeah. i think your first question is exactly the right one. why now? why is he doing this now? there is very political downside to him domestically for doing this now. it's something the allows him to be presidential and be a statesman and allows him to bring together these parties that have been, you know, at each other's throats for decades. to try to resolve something. the problem he faces is that

it's, in spite of the better arrangements -- i agree with charlesn the way is that the talks have been structured, very few people think he is likely to have any kind of real success. certainly not to have it within a year. i think the bigger problem, the further problem is also a matter of sequencing. the white house believes that you can have middle east peace before you deal with iran. i believe the opposite. you have to deal with iran first and then deal with middle east. i don't think you'll see much from the white house on that. >> jim: that is it for the panel. stay tuned for analysis on president obama's recent vacations. plus, the results in our text to vote poll. [ man ] for years, i trusted an old traditional brokerage

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>> time to reveal the results of tonight's text to vote poll. how many seats do you think republicans will pick up in the midterm elections 4% say 20 to 29 seats. 10% say 30 to 39 and 33% say 40 to 49 and 53% say more than 50 seats. a pickup of 39 would give republicans control. thank you for your votes. finally tonight, there has been a bit of discussion about how many vacations the president has taken this year. last night david letterman weighed in on the issue. >> and i thought, ha, so what, let him take a vacation. what do i care? it doesn't bother me. and then, last night, i saw the oval office address and i thought hmmm, maybe there something to this. >> president obama's address to the nation. >> this nation has known hard times before. we will surely know them again. [ laughter